Wednesday, 5 August 2009

HIV Spreads Among the Gay Population in Africa

In a recent report on BBC it was reported that AIDS was transmitting in an alarming rate among gay men in most of the sub-Saharan African countries.

The report says that of the estimated 33mil people in the world who contracted the HIV disease, two-thirds live in sub-Saharan Africa.

On the same report it said that one of the reasons that caused the circulation of the disease is prejudice towards gay people. The prejudice of the general public leads to harassment and subsequently isolation of the gay community, and this in turn leads to risky sexual practices.

Several prominent activists on gay rights in African nations proclaimed that due to “cultural, religious, and political unwillingness to accept gays as equal members of the society”, gay men will often “hide their sexual orientation” and get married and have children, but continue to have sex with men. Often transmitting HIV to the women and children in the family.

In one article by Minh T. Nguyen on history of gay civil rights, he claims that in a statistic report it was noted that gay men were more likely to not use condom when having sex, because of not running the risk of pregnancy and certainly in the BBC report, it seems to support such view, when it is claimed that men tend to use condoms when having intercourse with women but not with men.

The story of a society that is not open to gay rights, brings memories of a movie called “Philadelphia”.

In the movie, one gay character by the name of Andrew Beckett played by Tom Hanks goes into a cinema in 1983/84, where gay pornographic movies were played, and engages in risqué sex with a stranger. Fast forward 10 years later, Beckett became a successful lawyer but is dying of AIDS and is fighting a litigation battle in court for wrongful dismissal. He confesses that 10ys ago he did not know how AIDS can be contracted.

The story although based on a true story is in every sense fictional but it does portray how societies which are not receptive of homosexuals can lead them to seek what would some call “alternative lifestyles”.

In the West, in the last 30 years we have seen that gay rights movement have gained pace, especially among European countries such as Norway and Denmark where gay marriage was legalized in 1989 and 1993. In the UK, civil partnership between gay couples became legal in 2004/2005.

People became inspired by the civil rights movement initiated by people such as Malcolm X and Martin Luther King, of the 60s in US. Their success gave gay people a new wave of confidence to pursue their own set of rights.

The Stonewall riot of 1969 was a defining moment in the history of gay rights movement not just in US but also around the world. It led to serious altercations between police and rioters. The New York police tried to close down some local gay bars, and in return they were forced to barricade themselves inside the bars after some 500 rioters showed up.

In the UK, up until 1967, homosexuality was considered a crime, and although later it was decriminalized, in 1988, laws such as section 28 was still being passed.

Section 28, prohibited local councils to distribute leaflets, plays, books, or any other material that promoted gay relationships, this law was viewed by many gays and lesbians as discriminating and subsequently led to the establishment of a non-profit organization called Stonewall, which fought for gay rights within the UK.

Section 28 sparked controversy and in 1988, some of the most prominent individuals in UK, including actor Sir Ian McKellen marched on the streets of Manchester opposing the law.

The recognition of gay rights among governments in Western societies came because gay movements have actively fought against prejudice, and it was these movements that have shifted the perception of the general public, leading to a greater support.

When prejudice towards any group of people, whether is it is homosexuality, race, gender inequality, etc… persists in any nation, it usually is because not enough progress has been made among those who are fighting for those rights.

To conclude, a quote from the Philadelphia film, an exchange of words between the judge and the lawyer who is fighting for Andrew Beckett, seems to be befit this situation.

Judge Garret: In this courtroom, Mr.Miller, justice is blind to matters of race, creed, color, religion, and sexual orientation.
Joe Miller: With all due respect, your honour, we don’t live in this courtroom, do we?

Tuesday, 21 July 2009

EBay Cancelled Annual EBay Live!

After hosting eBay Live since 2002, EBay has finally called it quits on 2009 and have organized a different format for sellers to meet up in a smaller scale localized events.

A quote from the Wall Street Journal, the EBay spokesperson Usher Lieberman says that “at some point eBay Live got too overwhelming and it became too large to really have the sort of interactions our customers need”.

As it was stated by Ina Steiner the blogger from AuctionBytes, at its peak, eBay Live attracted over 15,000 attendees and eBay executives were often greeted with standing ovations, but soon the atmosphere changed and became “difficult”.

Skip McGrath, a long time eBay seller and author who attended all the previous events, when interviewed by Wall Street Journal, said that after eBay made several changes on pricing and listing in 2008, that the mood during eBay Live became sombre and eBay executives were greeted with boos from the audience.

The changes that eBay made that led to jeers from former supporters stem from the company’s change of policy of benefiting the large power sellers rather than small merchants. The concept of eBay as an online flea market is over.

First, eBay changed their previous non-involvement role on transactions to a more centric role in solving disputes. EBay also made it compulsory for all sellers to establish a return policy. Power sellers, are more equipped to deal with returned products than smaller sellers.

Second, eBay adopted a more sophisticated software system which will formulate FAQ sessions for the buyer to the seller in regard to an item on auction, eliminating the cumbersome process that sellers have on answering thousands of individual questions.

Third, the listing structure have changed, sellers now can make 1 listing for multiple items of different colours, paying only once for listing the same product of different colours. In the past, the same situation would have resulted in two separate listings.

Fourth, the fee for listing items became cheaper, but in comparison the commission for a sold item became more expensive. This again, made it cheaper for power sellers who list hundreds and thousands of items, but it affects the small seller who only lists a few items.

These changes were designed to shift eBay’s emphasis away from auctions style sales and more towards a fixed-price listing, which clearly benefits the power seller but alienates the smaller sellers who made eBay grow in the 90s.

The end of eBay Live is not viewed as a bad move from eBay by everyone. McGrath, welcomes the new format and adds that after “attending a localized small scale Amazon event that featured no more than 200 sellers, with a 2 hour Q&A session and a lunch box, almost all sellers left happy and clarified with the answers provided by the Amazon executives”.

It has been noted by Reuters that the move of scaling down its operations was exacerbated by the recession who forced eBay to change its marketing tactics and cut back the costs. Low key meetings would yield lower costs.

To borrow a term used by Eturbonews, “the AIG effect” has had an impact on US corporations. It seems that back in 2008 in September, just days after accepting an $85billion federal bailout, AIG executives spent $443,000 on an annual holiday package in Las Vegas.

This news created a backlash effect with severe negative publicity among the media who simply crucified several of the US corporations receiving bailout.

After this incident, several corporations such as Google, who in recent years has set the standard for extravagance in holiday blowout bashes with 10,000 people attending their party, opted for a much more modest team-focused party within departments. Other companies such as Viacom and ABC News have cancelled their annual holiday party and instead gave employees extra days off (MSN Money News).

The ending of eBay Live in favour of smaller scale meetings accommodates the sellers by cutting their travelling costs. Also, a smaller scale meeting with 500 people is much more manageable than a 15,000 strong participants.

The smaller meetings can allow eBay executives to bond with the sellers. This closer personalized interaction will allow eBay to answer any questions the sellers might have and, therefore diminishing the chances of a joyless environment.

According to some analysts, such as Geoffrey A. Fowler, writer of the WSJ, these series of moves by eBay are strategies laid out to specifically close the gap with Amazon.

In recent years, Amazon has become eBay’s main competitor with an ever-growing selection of fixed-price items accompanied with free shipping promotions, which became a popular option for consumers as they shifted their internet shopping habits.

Sunday, 19 July 2009

Cats Get What They Want with Crying Purrs

A new study has found the reason why cat owners across the world find it difficult to reject waking up in the morning when their cat pets annoy them with high pitch purrs.

A team of researchers from University of Sussex lead by Karen McComb published a paper in the journal Current Biology, have found that cats who live on a one-on-one situation with their owners have learned to purr on a higher frequency which resembled a baby cry (From ABC.NET.AU).

According to the study, these baby cry purrs trigger a natural instinct to nurture in humans and in return the cats will get more attention from their owners.

McComb call these high frequency purrs a Solicitation Purring. She makes the distinction between solicitation purring with plain meowing which she says that the latter will more likely result in cats being thrown out of the room (The Telegraph).

The team’s study involved in playing back the recorded soliciting purrs and non-soliciting purrs among a group of human volunteers and those who have had no prior experience with cats also “found the soliciting purrs more urgent and less pleasant.” She notes (BBC).

This study is reminiscent of a similar study done by Ivan Pavlov, a Russian physiologist, who won a Nobel Prize for his research in the digestive system but is rather widely famous for his Classical Conditioning study on dogs.

From the Nobel Prize website, it is understood that Pavlov found that by pairing the ringing of a bell with the offering of food, his laboratory dogs learned the association between bell and food, and hence every time the bell rang the dogs will start to salivate involuntarily even when no food was offered.

This learning process by association, Pavlov called it Classical Conditioning.

McComb’s study points out that cats learn to purr in higher frequency resembling baby cry to grab the owners attention and therefore get what they want which is food.

Cats have learned through a trial process that when they meow they are thrown out of the room, but when they purr resembling a baby cry, they get the food. It is this association between purring and food that causes cats to continue to use the purring sound.

One of the most important findings of this study is that humans respond differently to different stimulus and in this case with cats, humans’ annoyance threshold seems to be less tolerant with meows and more responsive when it’s a purr combined with a cry.

Monday, 13 July 2009

Let’s Study Derrières

I remember when I was young, my grandma and her old ladies friends telling me that when I grow up, I should pick a woman with a large pelvic bone because it will bring me good fortune. In fact, the exact words they used were: “She will bear you many boys!”

At the time I didn’t understand the concept of how children are born let alone the correlation between bottoms and bearing children. I do remember, however, after that incident while taking a walk with my parents, I instinctively pointed at a nearby woman’s bottom and said: “She has a big bum. She is good to bear children!”

To my parents horror, they apologised to the lady profusely and immediately scolded me, but after knowing the grandma’s story, they just laughed it off.

What can I say? Kids say the darndest things...This is just one of the anecdotes I inherited, courtesy of my Chinese heritage.

All jokes aside, in Swansea, Wales, an artist called Sue Williams of Swansea Metropolitan University’s Dynevor Centre for Art, Design and Media got £20,000 grant from Arts Council of Wales to study women’s bottoms.

When interviewed by Thisiswales.co.uk, she says that part of her study requires making casts of women’s bottoms but that was only a small part of her research. She did not, however, offer more explanation on what her study involves.

One thing she did mention was that while working in Africa, her work (casts of women’s bottoms) was, “censored by the African government” and that bottoms were “treated with respect while in the West was seen as trivial, sensational and sexual.”

Notice that Africa is a continent and not a country. Not sure what is the meaning of “African government” (singular, not plural). Africa is a vast piece of land with many nations, cultures and religions. Some are Christians and others are Muslims and even Jewish (Ethiopia), not to mention the different pagan religions.

With such a vast array of cultures and religions there are bound to have differences in how local people view certain parts of human anatomy, specially when these parts can have a certain sexual connotation. To apply a generalization view of African nations as a sole entity seems politically incorrect.

One of the questions raised by Thisiswales.co.uk, and rightly so, is why in such times of economic crisis, one artist was awarded £20,000 to study a part of a human anatomy, to which in her own words, it is seen as “sexual and trivial” in this Western society. Surely...if it's so trivial it shouldn't merit a look-over.

Another argument raised by Thisiswales.co.uk is that while the private sector is fighting for every penny and offloading employees to cut costs, the public sector seems to be spending extravagantly during crisis.

However, some economists would argue that it is precisely during times of economic crisis, when the private sector seems reluctant to spend that public sector is obliged to keep spending and even embark on national projects to create more jobs and keep the economy going, until it picks up again.

Both are valid points and offer good arguments, sadly for this particular case, one will find hard to argue that Sue Williams’ study qualifies for the latter argument.

Lesson Learned?

You are 18 and you feel anxious. You loathe the thought of getting bad grades on your A-levels and affecting your chances to go to University. Your main worry is English taught by Mrs. Devilheart. Talk about a tailor made name...

The only thought that cheers you up is that you won’t have to deal with Mrs. Devilheart for much longer as you are about to finish and soon you will be off to Uni.

But then you realize that at University you will be graded for another 3 years and all of a sudden you don’t feel so good anymore. And on top of that you haven’t picked a career yet, to which you will have to make that decision fairly soon.

Then suddenly this thought sprung up, that you will become an educator, endure 3 more years at University and then it is sweet revenge!

The thought of you exercising your ingrained right to grade pupils and make them feel miserable for their grades just like Mrs. Devilheart made you feel for the past 2 years, brought an ever so slightly evil grin to your face.

You think to yourself: “A lifetime of grading others and never be graded again, what a thrill!”

Are you sure? Think again!

Teachers now are also being graded. That’s what happened in Germany. According to Reuters, a German court overthrew a teacher’s case when she argued that her rights had been violated after being rated by pupils on an online website (Spickmich.de).

The court believed that as long as the opinions are expressed in neither abusive nor insulting manner, the pupils have any right to express their opinions on a teacher’s “performance” on a scale from 1 to 6 (1 being the best grade).

Some of the categories used to assess a teacher are: cool; funny; popular; motivated; human; good teaching.

The rating of a teacher is hardly a new concept. In US a website called Ratemyprofessors.com, which was established in 1999, has now 6.8million students registered and over 1million professors being rated. Another website Ratemyteachers.com, online since 2000, has 10mil registered students and about 1mil high school teachers.

In 2008, the Ratemyprofessors.com website integrated UK universities too, with UK lecturers being rated the same way as the US counterparts.

The difference between Ratemyprofessors.com and Spickmich.de is that the US website allows students to literally post any comments they want regardless of category.

When ratemyprofessors.com opened up to UK institutions, The Independent reported that UK lecturers found the criticism pointing at them to not be very constructive. Some of the comments left by students were: Not very bright; incredibly patronizing; false personality, the book is a better teacher and has a better personality.

These are malicious criticism which does not tackle the problem nor does it offer any constructive suggestions to improve the overall deliverance of the teachers. In fact, some of the criticisms were of personal nature, criticizing the looks of a person rather than the teaching qualities.

Should a teacher’s “hotness” be considered as a category to judge an educator?

This is reminiscent of the sort of treatment Susan Boyle received when she first walked on stage. She was clearly dismissed by the audience due to her looks even before she sang her “I Dream a Dream”.

Rating someone based on things other than their professional competence seems like a form of prejudice. It would be almost synonymous with saying that lecturers would downgrade students based on their nationality, culture or skin colour.

With the proliferation of plastic surgeries around the world, with fashion magazines telling us how we should wear and look, with societies becoming more synonymous with words like consumerism, materialism, have we really lost the plot and became depthless societies? It seems that the word shallow took the form of a shadow and followed us around.

On the other hand, rating a teacher or professor seems like a fair assessment. After all, don’t we all leave reviews for products? In today’s world, if a person wants to buy a laptop or a mobile phone, it simply needs to google the models and within seconds is reading a review page or viewing a review video online about the product.

In today’s standards, getting a better education for oneself or for the children seems like a lifetime contract/investment. If academic institutions are being graded and ranked by success and popularity why shouldn’t their most prized staff be considered for rating? After all in any business transaction, the consumers would want to know what products will they end up having.

Besides, why should professors feel threatened by students’ comments on a website? They should view it as an opportunity to better themselves professionally. If students give good reviews on a fellow instructor, who uses new methods supported by computers, then why not explore and update ones methods?

A little competition doesn’t hurt anybody.

Monday, 6 July 2009

Reroute or Not?

On the 30th of June of 2009, a tragic accident caused the death of 22 people (latest report according to Ansa.it) and near 50 injured, in a small town in the North of Italy called Viareggio.

According to a BBC report, a train with 14 wagons travelling from La Spezia to Pisa, was carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in each wagon. When one of the carriages derailed and jumped off the tracks near the Viareggio train station, the tank of the carriage that derailed didn’t survive the impact and created a fireball blast that spread 300 metres radius, incinerating everything in its path.

Houses were burned down and close to 1,000 people were evacuated by the local authorities with fear that more houses could collapse. Most of the victims were either burned or buried by the rubble.

Ansa reports that 80 people were left homeless by the explosion that occurred just before midnight.

The local residents are furious about the accident and are asking the authorities why the train has derailed and why didn’t the tank survive the derailment? But the most important question asked was, why the train carrying such a dangerous cargo was allowed to travel along a highly residential area?

According to AOL news, the Italy’s state-run railways company said that the first carriage (the one that exploded) was registered with the Polish company PKP, while the other 13 were registered to Deutsche Bahn, German railways.

The local authorities after interviewing the drivers of the train, believe that the train might have derailed due to a damage to the tracks or a problem with the train’s braking system.

They also believe that the reason why the first tank exploded while the rest remained intact is because of poor maintenance of the tank.

The local authorities didn’t have an immediate answer as to why the train with dangerous cargo was passing by Viareggio, but the rail officials did say that Viareggio Station was an important hub for trains running up and down along the West coast.

Perhaps one of the reasons as to why freight train was being used rather than freight truck is because of the advantages that trains offer over trucking.

According to Treehugger website, a freight train has an efficiency of 400 ton-miles per gallon compared to only 130 ton-miles per gallon that trucks do.

Also according to a study conducted by David Forkenbrock, freight trains have, on average, less external costs (around 0.24 cents US) than freight trucks (about 1.11 cents).

With this information at hand, one can assume that trains are used instead of other forms of transportation simply because of the efficiency trains offer in comparison.

Many governments are in fact encouraging businesses to use freight trains more often rather than trucks, because they offer a greener solution. Businesses will also appreciate the train solution because it’s a cheaper alternative for them.

If the LPG was to be carried in other forms of transportation or had to be rerouted via other train tracks far from residential areas but covered longer distances, then it would have driven the prices of LPG higher. Hard to believe that the general public would appreciate that.

Accidents of this nature are extremely rare. Last time Italy had a major train accident occurred in 2005 when a commercial train collided head on with a freight train on a very foggy day.

Accidents are unpredicted occurrences and in this case it seems that the accident was a man made error. Perhaps it could have been avoided if the proper maintenance work was done regularly.

Is rerouting a solution?

That is a question that only Italian authorities can answer.

Are There Limits to Art?

Some of you might recognise the name Gunther von Hagens, but for most of us, the name might not be readily recognisable but his Body Worlds “artwork”, however, have attracted a quasi cult following with a good share of controversies.

So what is Body Worlds? It is an exhibition that tours around the world which exhibits preserved human or animal bodies. These bodies are prepared using a technique called plastination.

According to Body Worlds website, Von Hagens invented and patented his technique of plastination in 1977. The technique focuses on removing water and fat from the biological tissue and replace them with a type of resin to preserve the flesh. At first the technique was simply used on small animals and/or body parts. It was only in the 90s that technology has evolved to allow the plastination of a full human body.

In 1995, he exhibited his first Body Worlds in Japan and was an instant hit attracting 3 million visitors. In the next decade he opened a series of Body Worlds exhibitions and was never shy of controversies with his “art”.

Hagens claims that the bodies used come from volunteers who have prior knowledge that their bodies will be used for exhibitions. However, von Hagens has in several occasions in the past been accused by the authorities of several countries for acquiring bodies either illegally or without knowledge of the donor or its family.

In 2002, von Hagens courted controversy in the British Isles when he performed a public autopsy in front of a sold-out audience of 500. Public autopsies, is a criminal act under the British law, therefore by doing that, he was running the risk of being imprisoned.

In October of 2003, BBC News reported that close to a century of bodies used for the exhibition came from several medical centres from Kyrgyzstan and they were all acquired illegally. On the same year, an animal rights group launched a formal complaint that von Hagens had plastinated a gorilla corpse from Hannover Zoo without legal documents.

In January 2004, Der Spiegel, a German broadsheet, has claimed that von Hagens had acquired corpses from executed Chinese prisoners, which is a criminal act in Germany.

His latest controversy, as reported by The Telegraph on May of 2009, surrounds the usage of two corpses having sexual intercourse. Politicians and clerics alike have condemned the exhibit and labelled it lewd adding that pornography is in itself an insult to the dead.

Is sex depicted in artwork really an insult to the dead or to the living?

The truth is, since the beginning of time when humans started to create art, sex has always been used as a theme. Take Venus from the Paleolithic, the figurines clearly depict women with exaggerated sexual characteristics to symbolize fertility.

The Greeks often created paintings and sculptures with strong sexual connotations, including homosexual imageries.

In the Middle East, the Sumerians, Assyrians, Babylonians all depicted their Goddess of sex and love Ishtar/Inanna, naked and voluptuous.

Indians, of course, are famous for Kama Sutra, an ancient text describing Human Sexual Behaviour. The text managed to travel to China and Japan, allowing these cultures to create the erotic illustrations.

The trend has continued to medieval period, an era in which religious belief was strong and sexual oppression was strife, often paintings would depict virgin with a child naked. During renaissance the love for simulating classical art gave way to more nudity expression in art, a good example of such would be the Michelangelo sculpture of David.

At one point the Roman Catholic Church organized a “fig-leaf campaign”, where certain statues and paintings that portrayed full frontal nudity would be covered by a fig leaf. David of Michelangelo was at one point covered. The church has since dropped the campaign.

As societies progressed and become less prudent, debates started to emerge as to what was considered lewd and what is art. In the 18th century, most French salons would consider full frontal nudity to be acceptable only when the setting was clearly allegorical or mythical, i.e. “classical”.

One of the first paintings to emerge in Europe depicting a woman in full frontal nudity without the “classical” pretense was The Nude Maja by Francisco Goya. The painting immediately created an outrage among the deeply religious Spanish society. Goya however refused to paint clothes over Maja and instead painted a second copy with Maja fully clothed.

In the 19th and 20th century more artists further pushed the boundaries of sexual representation in art often challenging the social norms. And as new forms of media emerge, such as radio, television, photography, internet, etc, these controversies became great public relations tools for these artists as they saw controversies to be synonymous to greater notoriety.

Hugh Grant, Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashian, Pamela Anderson all have something in common. They have all been embroiled in a sex scandal which brought them fame.

In essence art is a representation of the culture we live in and it can be used as a form of illustrating life or a critique of the society we live in. But if used solely for the purpose of creating controversy and hence generate more PR for one self, it would seem that they have simply lost their sense of purpose as an artist.

A recent visit to the art exhibition of Tracey Emin, I found several art works of personal nature but with strong sexual imageries. Several questions emerged. Is Emin really a promiscuous person by nature or is she living a life with the persona she created from her artwork? Is it a case of art imitating life, or life imitating art? If using controversy as a PR tool, then just how much does a person’s soul cost?

Did von Hagens use the corpses in sexual intercourse to create controversy or to portray an act which is as natural as eating and/or sleeping?

Perhaps we will never know the answer, only he can answer that question.

However one can speculate that von Hagens being an anatomist, prefers to have the corpses displaying all kinds of activities that a human could perform and sexual intercourse is after all one of the most common human activities in a person’s lifetime. It is how all animals reproduce and create the next generation.

Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Scientists or Scaremongers?

In 2006, a documentary with the title “An Inconvenient Truth” was released to the cinemas which featured the former US Vice President Al Gore as its narrator.

According to Boxofficemojo website, the documentary was an instant hit making it the fifth most successful documentary to date, behind titles such as Fahrenheit 9/11, March of the Penguins, Earth and Sicko.

The documentary however garnered much appraisal as it received criticism. The reason is because the global warming phenomenon is a much controversial topic. In the science world, there are two opposing forces on the issue of global warming.

To understand why there are opposing opinions one must first understand what is interpreted as “global warming”.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific consensus on global warming is that the average temperature on earth has risen since 19th century and more specifically in the last 30 years, and that the warming is caused by humans due to carbon dioxide emissions and if the trend continues the temperature will continue to rise causing severe climate change and the rise of the sea level.

The opposing scientists however, question whether the warming of the temperature is really caused by humans or simply a cyclical phenomenon that occurs every 30 to 40 years.

Timothy Ball & Robert Carter, both geologists, believe that the global warming phenomenon is not related to carbon dioxide emissions. Ball, states that from 1900s to 1940s there was a warming effect. From 1940s to around 1980s there was a significant cooling effect, but from then on it was once again warming up until 1998.

Carter points that according to IPCC own satellite data statistics, from 1998 onwards there is little indication that earth is warming, in fact, the average temperature in the last decade shows signs of cooling.

These scientists don’t dispute that Earth has indeed suffered a certain warming effect, nor do they dispute that humans do need to lower carbon dioxide emissions because pollution causes health problems. What they dispute is the fact that carbon dioxide emissions cause warming. It is a notion which they deny to be correlated.

The study conducted by UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP), to which reports that 800,000 homes in Britain will be in danger of flooding in the next 25 years are projections or predictions of the future climate according to the current data.

UKCIP work very closely with IPCC and they use similar models to project future climate change. However, certain scientist have in the past pointed out that the models used by IPCC to project future climate are incoherent and invalid from a scientific point of view.

Hendrick Tennekes, a retired Director of Research for the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, wrote a piece where he states that he is sceptical of climate models simply because he does not believe that, currently, there are any models used anywhere in the world, including the IPCC models, which can generate “realistic” simulations of future climate.

Truth be told, is that we all have had experiences where we organized outdoor BBQs for the weekend because the meteorological services have said that it will be a sunny day, only to come weekend and it is raining. If meteorological services don’t have the required technology to predict weather in a space of 1 week, how can we possibly believe that the models used by UKCIP can predict weather changes in the next 25 years?

The million dollar question is, do we label these scientists nothing but a group of scaremongers, or can we really afford to ignore the warning signs and do nothing?

24/06/09
Marcelo Alves

Is it Really Wrong?

On June 18th an article by Patrick Cockburn, stated that Iraqi Oil Minister, Hussain al-Shahristani, was being criticized for being a sell-out.

Iraq is poised to award a number of licences to some of the world’s largest oil companies which according to the Iraqi government are better equipped in exploring the oil fields than the local oil companies.

The criticism has been strife however, because Iraqis believe that the government is putting the national oil interests in the hands of foreign oil firms.

The main opposition voice has come from Fayad al-Nema, a former director of South Oil Company (a National Iraqi company). His view is that the Iraqi government could lose control of the most strategic resource which is so crucial to the country’s main revenue and survival.

Are these criticisms justified?

In the post-war Iraq, the nationalist sentiment is stronger than ever. The people want to see Iraq rebuild to its former glory, a strong nation in the Middle East. For this Iraq would need the revenue generated from the exploration of oil. Iraqis however want to see this done free from foreign influence.

Most Iraqis believe that the US and British occupation of Iraq was about oil. The opening of the market will only foment these views.

That is however a social-political view. In economic terms can the opening of the market really be construed as a sell-out act?

Let’s review the terms of the contract.

According to Ruba Husari, from Iraq Oil – The Forum website, Iraq is ready to award 6 of the most prized oil fields among the 35 competing international oil companies. The 6 oil fields in question are: Rumaila, West Qurna-phase 1, Zubair, Missan, Kirkuk and Bai Hassan.

The contracts are designated to be service accords of 20 to 25 years, i.e., the companies agree to use the technology at their disposal to build facilities in order to increase the output volume of barrels per day. For this service the Iraqi government will pay the companies an agreed fee instead of sharing the profits of the production.

What this means is that in essence, the Iraqi government retains control of when and most importantly who they sell the oil to for the next 20 to 25 years.

Furthermore, a recent bill was passed where foreign oil firms will be charged with a minimum of 35% corporate tax (the current tax rate is 15%).

Husari points that the petroleum licensing will be divided into 3 categories. First category belongs to the 2 giant oil fields of Rumaila and Kirkuk, which will be reserved to companies with global operations producing more than 500,000bpd. Second category is for all companies bidding for the rest of the oil fields. Third category, is for those companies who don’t qualify to operate on fields but can participate in consortiums led by operators.

This last category allows smaller foreign companies to set up partnerships with the local Iraqi companies. Any joint venture with the state partner will result the state company having 51% majority stake.

Why is the Iraqi government giving out licenses?

Post-war Iraq is a country in turmoil. Rather than being a land of rules, it is a land where chaos rules. Because of its political instability, often state projects will receive unclear objectives and suffer several changes, which can only hamper the execution of those projects.

Also, after several investments by the state, the production levels are still not up to the standard needed. As pointed out by Cockburn, Iraq has already invested $8bn in technology and equipment to improve its current output, but it will need a further $50bn investment in the next 5 years to get the production levels from 2.5milion barrels a day to 6million bdp (the required amount to generate enough revenue for its rebuilding projects).

It has become increasingly clear that the Iraqi government does not have neither the expertise nor the funds required to improve its oil industry. The easiest and fastest solution is to allow foreign direct investment in the country.

Of course it can be argued that Iraqi government could possibly do it without FDI, but it would require a sizable investment which the country at the current state simply cannot satisfy and it would be a prohibitive lengthy process. Time, which Iraq simply cannot afford to wait.

The contracts also seem to be highly in favour of the government. Foreign firms will have to pay a premium of 35% corporate tax. It is a heavy tax duty. The high tax rate will inevitably motivate foreign firms to join partnership deals with local Iraqi companies to avoid the tax rate.

The joint ventures can only benefit the Iraqi companies. These companies will acquire know-how, technology, expertise and gain a more international business ethics that perhaps they currently lack.

Allowing FDI to go in and build the required refineries will speed up the process. According to Husari, the Iraqi government will only start paying the service fees to the foreign firms after the production of oil exceeds the current Iraqi production. The incremental production is expected to come 24 months after the contracts become effective. It is very doubtful that the current Iraqi government could achieve that in less than 2 years without foreign help.

By solving the oil industry’s problems, the Iraqi government can also free itself from one more headache and concentrate its resources solely on the rebuilding of the country, which at the moment seems to be the most critical issue.

Is it really wrong? Or is it just national pride blinding economic acuity?